PARIS — Santa Claus came early for millions of French people on Monday.
But President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to buy off a nationwide protest movement with handouts for low-paid workers and retirees is likely to come at a cost — inflating the budget deficit, pushing the national debt over 100 percent of gross domestic product and reneging on EU commitments to fiscal discipline.
After a month of a sometimes violent revolt by Yellow Jacket protesters against fuel tax hikes and the cost of living, Macron announced an immediate €100 a month increase in the minimum wage without extra cost to employers, the removal of social charges and income tax on overtime payments, and the scrapping of a tax rise on poorer pensioners.
The young president admitted in a televised address to the nation that he had underestimated public anger, failed to grasp the distress of families and the elderly struggling to make ends meet, and offended people with arrogant or offhand remarks.
“I accept my share of responsibility. I may have given you the feeling that I didn’t care, that I had other priorities,” a chastened Macron told prime-time viewers.
He gave no clue as to how he would finance the concessions, which together with last week’s scrapping of contentious planned tax hikes on gasoline and diesel could lead to at least €10 billion in lost revenue and an extra cost to the 2019 budget — roughly 0.5 percent of GDP.
The president refused to go back on his unpopular 2017 decision to scrap a wealth tax on the rich, which yielded €4 billion but was hated by investors who cited it as a barrier to creating jobs. But he said he would meet investors and business leaders in the coming days to see how they could contribute more to the economy.
Activists from the leaderless Yellow Jackets movement, which has spread like wildfire via social media, acknowledged first steps had been taken to meet their demands but many said Macron’s response was inadequate and vowed to keep up their roadblocks.
However, the government is hoping a combination of targeted measures, protest fatigue, revulsion at violence and looting, and the onset of the Christmas holidays will snuff out the protests before the end of the month.
The political cost to Macron’s authority and European standing are already high.
The pro-European president pledged when he was elected in May 2017 to finally respect France’s EU commitments on budget discipline, saying this was vital both to restoring public finances and to rebuilding trust, notably in key partner Germany.
But while increased growth and tax measures brought the deficit below the EU’s 3 percent ceiling last year for the first time in almost a decade, the centrist government has so far failed to cut public spending, which at 57 percent of GDP is among the highest in Europe.
The European Commission has already voiced concern about the feasibility of Paris’ plans to shave the deficit to 2.8 percent of GDP next year. That modest reduction now looks unattainable, not only because of Macron’s latest giveaways but also because the economic disruption of a month of protests is set to reduce growth this year and make next year’s 1.7 percent growth target, on which the budget is based, hard to achieve.
Italy’s populist leaders, who have openly defied Brussels with a rule-busting increased budget deficit for 2019, must be laughing.
Although Rome, which is facing an EU excessive debt procedure, is a separate case and of greater concern to financial markets, Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said the Commission was watching France’s situation closely.
The Bank of France halved its growth forecast for the final quarter of 2018 on Monday to 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent. Retailers said supermarket sales were 15 percent to 20 percent below normal for the fourth straight Saturday due to the blockades and fears of violence.
While the president did not say how he planned to achieve the promised €100 increase in the minimum wage, which affects 1.6 million people directly and 11 million through knock-on effects, an increase in a state-funded income supplement known as the “activity premium” seems the most likely way to avoid extra cost for employers.
French presidents for the last 25 years have been forced to retreat from economic and education reforms by street protests. Macron’s predecessors Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande retreated into immobility after bruising outbursts of public anger.
Despite his determination to be different, and his youthful energy, Macron started down the same road on Monday. Whether he can restore his authority and revive his reform agenda looks far from certain.
Paul Taylor, contributing editor at POLITICO, writes the Europe At Large column.
Click Here: Tienda Chivas